A recall of Nigeria’s political economy issues in 2017

“It has been a tough year for Nigeria and I hope next year will be a much more prosperous one,” - President Muhammadu Buhari on December 25, 2017

Compliment of the season! It’s barely four days to the end of the year and what a year it has been! I recently joined the Arise TV as an in-house analyst and on Christmas day we had a one hour documentary on the issues that defined the outgoing year. There were so many things tabled for discussion but time was so insufficient that many of them had to be shelved for discussion on another day. For me seven key issues defined Nigeria in 2017. They are the 154 days of medical tourism by the president, the restructuring debate, the budget imbroglio, the herders versus farmers faceoff, the economic recovery and growth plan, the lingering fuel scarcity, the party politics and preparation for 2019 General Elections.  All these can be subsumed under politics or economy.

In the outgoing year, President Muhammadu Buhari was out of the country on medical tourism for a cumulative 154 days during which he did the needful by sending a letter intimating the National Assembly of his travel and empowering his Vice President, Prof. Yemi Osinbajo as Acting President. This was very much unlike the scenario that played out under the administration of ex-President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua who failed to either transmit a letter to NASS or empower his Vice, Dr. Goodluck Jonathan to act in his absence. This oversight led to the invocation of the Doctrine of Necessity by the federal lawmaker which effectively resolved the issue before there was a constitutional amendment to make it mandatory for president or governors to hand over to their deputies when on leave.

The absence of the president generated a lot of furore with many arguing that as acting president, the Vice-President does not have unfettered executive powers. It is however interesting to note that Osinbajo effectively and judiciously utilised presidential powers while his principal was away attending to his failing health. This ensured that there was no vacuum in governance. The Acting President did a lot including embarking on conflict mediation missions around the country – in Niger Delta, in Southern Kaduna – and hosting dialogue sessions with political, religious and traditional rulers. He initiated and signed four executive orders targeted at ease of doing business including the launch of the Voluntary Assets and Income Declaration Scheme aimed at increasing tax awareness and compliance, as well as grant tax payers a time-limited opportunity to regularise their tax status without penalty. The Acting President signed the 2017 appropriation bill into law and inaugurated two newly appointed ministers.

While the opposition party and a section of the civil society made heavy weather out of the president’s absence, with many claiming he’s on life support and is brain-damaged, some other flew the kite that the president has indeed died. All said, the President on August 19 made a triumphant return to the country and had effectively taken charge of governance of the country and even making many foreign trips.

In the outgoing year, the budget remains a knotty issue. The country is still bogged down with late presentation and passage of the appropriation bill. The financial estimate is also widely reported to be heavily padded by both the executive and the legislative arm of government. Indeed, a whistleblower, Hon. Abdulmumin Jibrin published many sordid details about the unwholesome practice by his colleagues in the parliament, especially the leadership of the national assembly. After some media frenzy the allegations quietly died. The 2017 budget was signed mid-year on June 12, 2017 and the capital vote release has been haphazard and uninspiring. In the first five months of the year, only N450bn was released by the Ministry of Finance with additional N750bn probably released last week. This has caused a lot of economic dislocation and negatively affected delivery on completion of major infrastructural projects. Indeed, much against the stipulation of Fiscal Responsibility Act 2007 the Medium Term Expenditure Framework and Fiscal Strategy Paper which should guide the budget proposal were  submitted late like the budget itself. The 2018 budget was submitted in November and news filtering in from BudgIT, a civil society watchdog on budget matters shows that the budget like the ones before it is heavily padded with bogus and   bloated estimates. The attempt to go back to January – December budget cycle has also been thwarted.

In 2017, the National Assembly worked assiduously to complete work on constitutional review exercise. The two chambers in July passed constitutional amendment bills. Unfortunately, they rejected the bill on devolution of powers while the 36 state houses of assembly are yet to vote on consequential amendments to finalise the exercise. Just last week, the Speakers of the SHA met with the Nigerian Governors who advised them to go and hold widespread consultations including public hearings before they will vote on the constitutional amendment bills transmitted to them by NASS. That has effectively stalled the amendment process.  The non-passage of the devolution of powers bill coupled with the push for referendum on self-determination by the Nnamdi Kanu led Indigenous People of Biafra and the launch of Operation Python dance by the military in the South-East culminated in the strident call for political and economic restructuring of the country.  The discussion on restructuring led to heated debate when some Arewa youth groups gave three months quit notice to Igbos living in 19 Northern States of Nigeria to leave by October 1. The ruling All Progressives Congress which had pledged devolution of powers in its electoral manifesto in response to the call for restructuring set up a Mallam Nasir El-Rufai committee to look into what should be the  party position on the issue.

On April 5, 2017, President Muhammadu Buhari launched his economic blueprint which is tagged “Economic Recovery and Growth Plan”. ERGP seeks to achieve a seven per cent economic growth by the year 2020. The plan equally promised diversification of the economy, ease of doing business, increase oil production, reduction of inflation, effective collaboration between the public and private sector, as well as between the federal and the state governments. It also hopes to leverage on science, technology and innovation and building of a knowledge-based economy.  To an extent, this plan is working as its implementation has led to the country exiting economic recession with bold attempts at diversification of the economy (Nigeria started exporting yam in 2017 and improved local production of rice has led to significant reduction in the importation of the staple food).  Indeed, in October this year, World Bank reported that Nigeria had moved up by 24 points in the ‘Ease of Doing Business Index’  from 169th position on the 2017 ranking and also 170th position on the 2016 ranking to 145 in the World Bank’s 2018 report. This is heartwarming!

Unfortunately, the herders versus farmers’ faceoff took a turn for the worst in the outgoing year with some state governments such as Benue, Taraba and Ekiti passing anti-open grazing laws. The menace got to Olympian heights in Southern Kaduna, Adamawa and Benue with hundreds of lives lost and property worth millions of Naira destroyed while thousands became internally displaced. . Adequate federal government response to this threat to food security is still being awaited.

On March 9, 2017, two years ahead of the next general elections, the Independent National Electoral Commission announced the dates for the 2019 general elections. The commission said the next presidential and National Assembly elections will hold on February 16, 2019 while governorship and state assembly polls will take place on March 2, 2019. The commission, apart from holding a credible and successful governorship election in Anambra on November 18, 2017 also embarked on nationwide Continuous Voters Registration and distribution of Permanent Voters Card exercise while registering a cumulative 26 new political parties bringing the total to 67 registered parties in Nigeria. The People’s Democratic Party was also largely able to resolve its protracted leadership crisis with the holding of an elective convention in Abuja on December 9, 2017. There have also been a number of defections and cross-carpeting by political heavyweights across the country with the most significant one being the recent dumping of the ruling APC for PDP by ex-Vice President Atiku Abubakar.

The year is ending on a gloomy note for many Nigerians due to the recent resurgence of the hydra-headed monster known as fuel scarcity. Indeed, it was a bleak Christmas for most Christians last Monday as many had to observe a self-imposed curfew due to their inability to source fuel to power their automobiles and power generators. This has not only impacted negatively on the ease of doing business but also on the social lives of the citizenry. The question on the lips of most Nigerians is, when shall we overcome this perennial challenge?

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