For credible governorship polls in Kogi and Bayelsa

On assumption of duty in November 2015, the first set of elections conducted by Prof. Mahmood Yakubu-led Independent National Electoral Commission was the Kogi and Bayelsa governorship polls. For Yakubu, it was a baptism of fire. While the Kogi State governorship election was held on November 21, that of Bayelsa was held on December 5, 2015. Incidentally, the two governorship polls were declared inconclusive by INEC as they were marred by electoral violence, thus necessitating the conduct of supplementary elections in Polling Units where election results were cancelled.

In fact, the Kogi governorship poll threw the electoral umpire off-balance as the candidate of the All Progressives Congress, Prince Abubakar Audu, died midway into the election. It was unprecedented and INEC, after due consultations with its team of legal advisers, officially asked the APC to nominate a fresh candidate before the supplementary poll was held on December 5, 2015. The election petitions tribunal and indeed the Supreme Court backed INEC’s decision on that matter.

Another round of elections in Kogi and Bayelsa states falls due on November 16, 2019. INEC had on July 6, 2019 announced the dates for the polls. In line with the Timetable and Schedule of Activities for the elections, party primaries were to be held between August 18 and September 5, 2019. Indeed, this has been strictly adhered to by the political parties hoping to nominate candidates for the polls.  While the APC charged the sum of N22.5m for the Expression of Interest and Nomination Form (N2.5m for Expression of Interest, while Nomination Form was N20 million.), the Peoples Democratic Party pegged its own at N21m (N1m Expression of Interest and N20m Nomination Form). The August 26, 2019 report in Leadership newspaper claimed that, “The ruling All Progressives Congress and its main opposition, the Peoples Democratic Party, generated about N1.147bn from the sale of expression of interest and nomination forms from all aspirants jostling for the governorship seats in Kogi and Bayelsa states,”

As part of activities lined up for the upcoming governorship elections, INEC has commenced distribution of Permanent Voter Cards. According to the commission, the collection of the PVCs for the governorship elections in Bayelsa and Kogi states will take place between September 2 and 30 from 9am and 3pm on weekdays. The commission put the total number of uncollected PVCs for Kogi State at 170,644, while that of Bayelsa State stands at 49, 291.

On Sunday, September 8, 2019, I and two other panelists were   guests on “Democracy Today”, a political programme on the African Independent Television anchored by Ijeoma Osamor. The discussion centred on how to ensure peaceful and credible elections in Kogi and Bayelsa. The three of us on the programme were in agreement that it would be a Herculean, though not an impossible task. In taking that position, I took cognisance of the history of electoral violence in the two states, not just in 2015 but even during previous polls. Interestingly, the push factors are still very extant.

For instance, the PDP gave the ruling APC a ‘bloody nose’ during the last February/March 2019 elections. Out of the 29 governorship polls held on March 9, the PDP won 15 states while the APC won in 14 states. If we add five states which the APC is controlling among the seven states where there will be off-cycle elections, this will bring the total number of states under the APC control to 19, the PDP has Bayelsa at present putting it in control of 16 states while the All Progressive Grand Alliance controls Anambra State. Considering that before the gale of defections hit the APC in July 2018, the party was in control of 24 states, this means the party has lost ground even though it still has a majority of governorship and parliamentary seats including the presidency.

It has been the utmost desire of the APC to add to Edo State it currently controls among the six states in the South-South geopolitical zone. It hotly contested Rivers and Akwa Ibom states during the last elections but failed to unseat the PDP governors in those two states. Now that ‘Kontriman Governor’, Henry Seriake Dickson, is serving out his mandatory two terms coupled with the fact that Bayelsa is one of the major oil-producing states, the APC will want to dislodge the PDP that has been in control of the state since 1999. As for Kogi State, being an APC state at present, the party will want to do everything to consolidate its hold on power despite allegations of non-performance levelled against the incumbent governor, Yahaha Bello.

The stage is thus set for another epic battle for the political control of Kogi and Bayelsa states come November 16. As a Psephologist, it is part of my responsibilities to educate the electorate and citizens in general about the issues around the elections. Therefore, my first appeal to the political contestants in the elections in Kogi and Bayelsa is to engage in issue-based campaigns. As they criss-cross the states to market their candidacies and their political parties, they must realise that election is rule-based.  The 1999 Nigerian Constitution as amended in 2018, the Electoral Act 2010, as amended in 2015, and INEC’S Regulations and Guidelines for the Conduct of elections as published on January 14, 2019 have set parameters for the conduct of the forthcoming polls. Party candidates must take cognisance of provisions of Sections 95 and 96 of the Electoral Act which forbid violent conduct including use of hate speech during campaigns.

Furthermore, Section 91 (3) of the Electoral Act has also pegged the ceiling of campaign finance expenditure of governorship candidates at N200m only. Should they decide to flout this regulation, they may find themselves in trouble as INEC has already sent out its campaign finance monitors to track expenses of candidates in the polls. I am also using this medium to remind the political gladiators in Kogi and Bayelsa states that Sections 124 and 130 of the Electoral Act have criminalised vote-trading. As such, any indulgence in the criminal act, including all manner of corrupt practices, could land the perpetrators in trouble. Similarly, Section 100 (2) says, “State apparatus including the media shall not be employed to the advantage or disadvantage of any political party or candidate at any election”. Therefore, abuse of State Administrative Resources such as funds, personnel, media, security agents, vehicles, stadia, and other public utilities shall not be tolerated.

I enjoin INEC to wield the big stick and prosecute any candidate or political party that may want to test its resolve to conduct peaceful and credible polls. The law is on the side of the electoral management body and it should exercise the powers vested in it by the aforementioned electoral laws. Also, it must, like Julius Caesar’s legendary wife, be above board. It should avoid the pitfalls of the 2019 general election. Issues around the Voter Register, Voting Point and Voting Point Settlements, logistic challenge of late deployment of election materials and personnel and the weaknesses observed in result collation and transmission must be fixed ahead of the November 16 elections.

The commission should activate its Inter-Agency Consultative Committee on Election Security and ensure that members of the committee act professionally in the provision of election security. The electorate should come out en masse to participate in the voting. At least, simultaneous accreditation and voting adopted by INEC have cut down drastically the waiting time of voters. Accredited observers and journalists should embrace conflict sensitive reportage and carry out their responsibilities without prejudice. Should any of the contestants be dissatisfied with the outcome of the polls, let them seek redress at the Election Petitions Tribunals rather than ignite post-election crises.