Elections or War in Kogi and Bayelsa States?

Background and preparations

Ahead of the November 16, 2019 off-cycle governorship elections in Kogi and Bayelsa States, the Independent National Electoral Commission had assured and reassured the voting populace and the Nigerian public about its readiness to conduct credible and peaceful elections. The commission’s optimism stems from the fact that it had done all it needed to do in preparations for the four elections holding in the two states namely the Kogi governorship election, the Kogi West court ordered senatorial election rerun, the Bayelsa State governorship election as well as the Brass 1 State Constituency poll. 

In preparation for the elections INEC hatched an Election Project Plan (EPP), published Timetable and Schedule of Activities, set up the Election Management System (EMS), activated its Inter-Agency consultative Committee on Election Security (ICCES), distributed Permanent Voter Cards for those who are yet to collect their PVCs from September 2 – 30, 2019, deployed its Election Risk Management  Tool,  and held two stakeholders meetings in Kogi and Bayelsa where Peace Accords were signed by the contesting political parties and their candidates. The commission also  held policy dialogues and  Quarterly Meeting focusing on the elections with key stakeholders like the political parties, media, and Civil Society Organisations in the last week of October, conducted voter and peace education including Vote Not Fight campus outreaches in the two states as well as attended many of the CSO initiated programmes such as the one organised by Nigeria Civil Society Situation Room  on October 31, 2019. I personally attended many of the meetings. 

With all these high level preparations one had expected a seamless exercise, peaceful and credible elections. Unfortunately, that was not to be. Nigeria experienced on Saturday, November 16 one of the worst electoral heist since the commencement of elections in 1923. Yes, unlike in 2015 when the governorship elections in both states were declared inconclusive, this time around, the governorship elections produced outright winners on the first ballot with the exception of Kogi West senatorial election rerun which was declared inconclusive due to the massive cancellations of results (over 43,000 votes). In the two states, INEC declared the All Progressives Congress candidates – Yahaya Bello in Kogi and David Lyon in Bayelsa winners. Quite unfortunately for INEC, many CSOs who were accredited to observe the elections thumbed down the process and outcome of the polls. In fact, YIAGA Africa and Nigeria Civil Society Situation Room called for the outright cancellation of the entire Kogi election results.

Accredited CSOs poor rating of the November 16 polls

Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD) said Nigeria witnessed a gunpoint democracy during the off-cycle Kogi and Bayelsa elections. A November 18, 2019 press statement released by CDD Election Analysis Centre said “Our observer reports from Kogi State have so far recorded the deaths of 10 people in various shooting incidents and attacks. Furthermore, EAC accredited nonpartisan observers, including trained roving journalists, reported over 79 critical incidents across the Kogi State off-cycle governorship and the rerun Senatorial elections. Incidents ranged from the hijack of electoral materials by thugs, the kidnap of INEC ad-hoc staff, vote buying, attacks on observers, intimidation of voters, under-aged voting, widespread stuffing of ballot boxes, ballot snatching and multiple voting.”

“In Bayelsa, CDD EAC observers reported over 50 critical incidents which directly impacted on the credibility of the election. Violence in form of thuggery, ballot box snatching and destruction of voting materials constituted 66.7% of the total reported incidents. These incidents predominantly occurred in Yenagoa, Ekeremor and Sagbama LGAs of Bayelsa State. In Southern Ijaw and Nembe had no access.”

YIAGA Africa in a statement released on Monday, November 18, 2019 observed thus: “The WTV (Watching the Votes) data shows that election was not conducted in 24% (61 of 250) of YIAGA AFRICA’s WTV sampled polling units. This incident was more prevalent in 28 polling units in Southern Ijaw LGA, 11 polling units in Ogbia LGA, 9 polling units in Ekeremor LGA, 7 polling units in Nembe LGA, 5 in Sagbama LGA and 1 in Yenagoa LGA of the PVT sampled polling units. Statewide this data suggests that elections may not have been held in several hundred polling units thereby seriously compromising the rights of people of Bayelsa to freely determine for themselves their elected governor.” YIAGA went further to say that “The political class have perfected their act of undermining the process and is consistently making it difficult for INEC to conduct the elections across board. Beyond the parties are also the security agencies who are failing in their critical role of supporting the work of INEC for the safe, effective and successful deployment of materials and safeguarding the process. This failure remains a factor enabling the late commencement of polls, breach of the electoral laws and the willful commission of electoral offences.”

The Nigeria Civil Society Situation Room in a statement issued on November 21 observed thus: “Incidents of violence that occurred in the course of the Kogi and Bayelsa Governorship elections have raised alarm nationwide about the nature of elections in Nigeria. Unprecedented levels of violence resulting in multiple deaths across both States is raising questions about the future of Nigeria’s electoral process. National and international observers are worried that political party thugs and supporters aided by uniformed persons unleashed massive violence on voters seeking to exercise their franchise. Nigerians question the spree of violence that characterised the elections, despite the heavy deployment of security personnel to the States for the elections. In its interim statement on the Kogi election, Situation Room decried the incidences of attack on some election observers, vote trading and the presence and free movement of thugs across the State, instigating and perpetrating violence. Situation Room and other Civil Society groups called for the cancellation of the election in Kogi State.”

It should be observed that ahead of the elections, concerns were raised by INEC and some CSOs about the possibility of a blowout in the two states. Recall that before the elections the following incidences have been reported in the media: On Wednesday, November 13, there was violence in Ogbolomabiri, Nembe Local Government area of Bayelsa where Simon Onu, an Outside Broadcast van driver with Radio Bayelsa was killed at the Peoples Democratic Party governorship campaign rally. The shooting was blamed on APC youths who resisted PDP from coming to campaign in their area. In Kogi, a man named Yusuf Seidu Uhiene was allegedly  killed after hoodlums attacked the convoy of governorship candidate of the Peoples Democratic, Engineer Musa Wada, on Saturday, October 19, 2019. Also, policemen from Abuja on Saturday, November 2, 2019 arrested a retired Assistant Commissioner of Police, Suleiman Ejeh Abutu, and six others, in Dekina Local Government Area of Kogi State, over alleged illegal possession of firearms and ammunitions. Abutu is said to be the chairman of the security committee for the Wada/Aro PDP campaign organisation in Dekina LGA.  Suspected political thugs during the early hours of Monday, November 11, 2019 burnt the Lokoja, Kogi State secretariat of the Social Democratic Party. On November 12, 2019, the SDP candidate, Natasha Akpoti was attacked by suspected hoodlums at the INEC organised stakeholders meeting in the state. The meeting, had in attendance the Inspector General of Police, Mr. Mohammed Adamu, as well as INEC Chairman, Professor Mahmood Yakubu.

Even when the elections have been won and lost, violence did not abate. On Monday, November 18, 2019, Mrs Salome Abuh, the Women Leader of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in Ochadamu, Ofu LGA of Kogi State, was burnt alive with her house by suspected political thugs. Four other houses were also reportedly torched in the community. All the aforementioned electoral violence was why   the Transition Monitoring Group and several women’s group including the Nigerian Women Trust Fund had said they would write the International Criminal Court in The Hague, The Netherlands and other organs of the United Nations to protest against the violence which characterised the elections in Kogi State.

Defence from the Nigerian Police

To demonstrate ineffectiveness of Nigerian police to deal with the situation, despite the widespread violence experienced in the two states especially Kogi State, only 11 arrests have been made.  The Inspector-General of Police, Mr Mohammed Adamu, on Tuesday, November 19 said that ‘policemen’ alleged to have disrupted Saturday’s governorship poll in parts of Bayelsa and Kogi States were “fake” and not the personnel officially deployed for election duties. Adamu stated that all security personnel, who worked during the poll had “special identification tags”, adding that anyone without the tags was on illegal duty. He spoke with State House Correspondents after President Muhammadu Buhari and security chiefs held a meeting at the Presidential Villa, Abuja. However, he said an investigation was ongoing, while 11 arrests had been made. The big question is, how can fake policemen and hoodlums overrun over 60,000 security personnel deployed to provide election security in the two states? Recall that before the elections, Deputy Inspector General of Police AbdulMajid Ali, in charge of Kogi and Bayelsa States, had disclosed that 66,241 personnel would be deployed: 35,200 to Kogi and 31,041 to Bayelsa.

How appropriate is the call for cancellation of Kogi polls?

Apart from Civil Society Orgaisations who have called for the cancellations of the Kogi elections, many PDP chieftains have echoed similar sentiments. Among them were the PDP candidate in Kogi governorsjip election, Engineer Musa Wada, the PDP candidate in Kogi West senatorial rerun, Senator Dino Melaye and PDP national chairman, Uche Secondus, among others. However, what these people and organisations did not know or chose to ignore is that Section 68 (1)(c) of Electoral Act 2010, as amended  says: “The decision of the Returning Officer on any question arising from or related to declaration of scores of candidates and return of a candidate shall be final subject to review by a Tribunal or Court in an election petition proceedings under this Act.” Thus, the appropriate place to ventilate the call for cancellation is at the election petition tribunal.

Aside violence, what other factors may have aided APC victories in Kogi and Bayelsa?

There were 45 and 25 candidates in Bayelsa and Kogi 2019 off-cycle elections respectively. However, it was a two horse race in both states. It was a straight contest between APC and PDP. These two parties are most likely to be the purveyors of violence on November 16. However, some factors may have aided APC to clinch the two states. In Kogi, all the 25 State House of Assembly members, five out of seven House of Representatives members and two out of three senators belong to APC. The advantage here is that these elected representatives are likely to vigorously campaign for their party. Two, the APC candidate, Yahaya Bello is an incumbent seeking reelection. Thus he may have maximally used the State Administrative Resources to his advantage. Three, he allegedly reached out to the Yoruba speaking people of Kogi West (the Okun) to support his second term bid while he would, after his maximum two terms in 2023, support power shift to Kogi West. Four, his deputy governor and running mate, Edward Onoja is from Kogi East and was able to win the minimum of 25 per cent of votes needed in the LGAs in the senatorial district. Five, APC did not want to lose any more states after losing Sokoto, Adamawa, Bauchi, Oyo, and Zamfara during the 2019 governorship elections. Six, something akin to community voting took place in Kogi Central where Yahaya Bello came from as he overwhelmingly thrashed his closest rival in all the five LGAs making up the senatorial district viz- Okene, Adavi, Ajaokuta, Ogori Magongo and Okehi. The seventh factor is the protracted dispute over the outcome of the PDP primaries held in September where a number of the candidates that lost to Musa Wada were disenchanted and could possibly have worked against the interest of the party in the election. The last factor that may have assisted APC is the fact that the Kogi people may not want to be in opposition to the party at the centre which is APC.

In Bayelsa, some of the factors that may have worked in APC favour include the fallout of the PDP party primary in September where a lot of the contestants such as Timi Alaibe felt the exercise was skewed in favour of Senator Douye Diri, the anointed aspirant of the incumbent governor, Henry Seriake Dickson. Two, many notable politicians in PDP decamped to APC ahead of the election. Three, APC wanted additional oil-producing state in addition to Edo State and wanted to give the party a national clout of being capable of winning elections in all the six geo-political zones. The choice of APC candidate, David Lyon from the local government with highest number of votes – Southern Ijaw is also strategic.  Bayelsans also does not want to continue to be in opposition party to the one at the centre which has been the situation in the state since APC came to power in 2015. Lastly, the influence of Gov. Dickson has considerably waned as he is an outdoing governor having become a “lame duck” in the twilight of his second and final term.

Negative impact of the creeping ‘gunpoint democracy’ in Nigeria

With the heightened deployment of violence to win elections in Nigeria, many critical stakeholders may gradually be disengaging from the electoral process. It was learnt that arising from the violence in Nembe on Wednesday preceding the Bayelsa governorship election, some already trained ad-hoc staff withdrew from the conduct of the election and INEC had to mobilise from the reserve. It is being predicted that if the orgy of electoral violence is not checkmated, INEC may not be able to have full complement of credible people to work with it to conduct election. Also, due to perpetual violence, the voters’ turnout will continue to be low. Also, many female politicians will be scared to contest elections while the vulnerable voters such as Persons with Disability and women will rather stay off the voting centres. On the whole, electoral violence will lead to voluntary disengagement of key stakeholders such as voters, poll workers, observers, and even journalists from the electoral process thereby making desperate politicians to have a field day perpetrating electoral malpractices and sharp practices. Ultimately, there is democratic reversal going on in Nigeria at present.

The way forward

A number of people have called for electoral reform to allow INEC use electronic voting and electronic transmission of results. Others have called for the establishment of Electoral Offences Commission and Tribunal. While I fully endorse these noble ideas, I believe that extant laws can help reduce incidences of violence considerably if the electoral offences laws and regulations are fully applied to deal with offenders. Unfortunately, these laws are currently observed in breach hence the thriving of culture of impunity.