Is this beginning of Obaseki’s political end?

Politics, globally, is an interesting game. It can make or break.  There are those who have been very lucky in the game, just as there are many have suffered irreversible losses as a result of not knowing when to leave. There are those who learn the rope and serve under the tutelage of a politically savvy leader, yet, there are those who just got lucky because they have strength of courage and boldness to throw their hat into the ring even at a time considered most inauspicious. In politics, if you’re afraid of throwing a dice, you will definitely never throw six.

It is often said that the only thing that is permanent in politics is interest. In the lead-up to the 2016 governorship election in Edo State, the former Secretary to the State Government, Osagie Ize-Iyamu, was the one most members of the inner caucus of Adams Oshiomhole favoured to succeed him. In a curious twist of fate, Oshiomhole neither backed his deputy, Dr. Pius Odubu, nor Ize-Iyamu. He rather picked a technocrat known as Godwin Obaseki. This angered not a few as many fluttered and defected from the ruling All Progressives Congress to try their luck elsewhere. Ize-Iyamu, for instance, eventually became the candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party in the election. Oshiomhole was unfazed by those who defected. He vigorously campaigned to install Obaseki as his successor to the Osadebey House, Benin City.

Fast forward, to four years after in a rather unfortunate manner, the same star-boy, Obaseki, could not even be allowed to contest the APC governorship party primary scheduled for June 22, 2020 as he was last Friday, June 12 disqualified by the party screening committee headed by Professor Jonathan Ayuba. The story has it that there is an apparent spelling error in his name on the National Youth Service Corps discharge certificate. Obaseki is hunting for a second term nomination and is reported to have gone to cut deal with the opposition Peoples Democratic Party to enable him be the touch bearer of the party in the state.

It is within the constitutional right of Obaseki to join any political party of his choice but I do not see him winning his reelection in the September 19, 2020 under the PDP. The odds are too many against him.  Many see him as being too desperate for reelection and that could be too costly. Analysts posit that the arm and leg to be demanded of him by the PDP could ultimately be counterproductive to him. His joining the party for the sole aim of getting the ticket could project him as a mercantilist politician who simply throws money at issues. From what I learnt, the PDP in Edo State is not without its internal wrangling and giving the ticket to Obaseki could just worsen the already bad situation in the state chapter of the party. They will most likely go into the Edo governorship election in September as a factionalised party.

Truth be told, Obaseki mismanaged his goodwill with the Edo APC. He was fighting too many political battles at all fronts. He fell out with his political godfather, Oshiomhole, too early into his first term. He forgot the wise saying of stooping to conquer. He claimed the former governor, now the national chairman of the party, was making a lot of appointments without consulting with him. Recall his famous quote of, “I cannot be a governor and not be a governor”.   He wanted to be his own man too soon, forgetting what happened to former Governor Akinwunmi Ambode of Lagos State, who though was allowed to contest the governorship primary of the state, could not win the ticket. Many expected Obaseki to have taken a cue from Ambode’s political misfortune last year. But then, a dog that will strays off will not heed the whistle of the hunter.

While face-offs between political godfathers and godsons are common in Nigeria and can be found in all political parties, only very smart political godsons are able to outsmart their godfathers. Some of the lucky few are Umar Ganduje of Kano State who squared up against former Governor Rabiu Kwakwanso’s preferred candidate towards the 2019 governorship election. Governor Udom Emmanuel of Akwa Ibom was also able to outsmart his former boss, Senator Godswill Akpabio.  Governor Samuel Ortom ran back to his former political party, the PDP, when he no longer enjoyed the confidence of Senator George Akume who was influential in getting him elected in 2015.

Obaseki should have known that he mishandled the case of 15 state House of Assembly members he did not allow to be inaugurated over a “Proclamation” he allegedly issued which was not circulated to all the members to enable them to take their positions in the state House of Assembly.

Instead of engaging in unnecessary grandstanding and legal chicanery, political solutions should have been fashioned out to enable those elected lawmakers to profit from their electoral victory since last year. It amounts to political naivety to think Obaseki could hold down another arm of government in a perpetual political crisis by working with only nine out of 24 members.

Under the Obaseki administration, the state chapter of the party became polarised and factionalised with one of the two factions even having the audacity to suspend the national chairman of the party, Oshiomhole. If not for a deft political move by the Oshiomhole camp at the National Working Committee, his traducers almost got him sacked. This he did through a counter injunction from the Kano High Court to the one that seemed to validate his suspension by a faction of the state chapter of the party.

Obaseki acted malafide by trying to embark on peace move with Oshiomhole early this month while at the same time trying to get his former benefactor arrested on corruption charges. A Federal High Court in Abuja, on Monday, June 1, 2020 temporarily stopped the Edo State Government and Obaseki from arresting and prosecuting Oshiomhole, over his alleged indictment in a White Paper report that probed the building of the Edo Specialist Hospital, Benin City. Obaseki had on January 31, 2020, inaugurated a Judicial Commission of Inquiry into the construction of the specialist hospital and supply of equipment for the health facility. The question to ask is, is the time appropriate to act on that report knowing too well that Oshiomhole would fight back?

Nonetheless, I wish Obaseki well in his desperate bid to get a ticket to re-contest. Even if the PDP decides to make him its standard bearer, that will still not guarantee his victory at the polls in September. Incumbent governors had lost elections before. Jubrila Bindow of the APC lost in Adamawa in 2019, so did M.A. Abubakar of Bauchi State. Even, Abiola Ajimobi as Oyo State governor could not win election to the Senate after eight years in office.

I know the APC and Oshiomhole will go for a broke as Edo State is the only state under the control of the party out of the six in the South-South geopolitical Zone. With Oshiomhole as the national chairman of the APC, given the nature and character of Nigerian politics, the party cannot toy with losing Edo to the opposition.   Whatever will be the outcome of the governorship poll, I enjoin all political gladiators to please play politics without bitterness. They should respect the WHO protocols on COVID-19 and ensure that campaigns and the election proper are devoid of bloodshed.