Fortes and foibles of 2020 Edo election

 

The Edo State governorship election held last Saturday, September 19, 2020 has been won and lost. Governor Godwin Obaseki of the Peoples Democratic Party won his reelection bid by polling 307,955 votes to defeat his arch-rival, Osagie Ize-Iyamu of the All Progressives Congress, who had 223,619 votes; a difference of 84,336 votes. Obaseki also won outright in 13 of the 18 local government areas and thus scored more than 25 per cent of votes cast in two-thirds of the local governments in the state. Fourteen candidates contested in the election but predictably it turned out to be a two-horse race between the incumbent governor and his main challenger, Ize-Iyamu. Obaseki will be sworn in for a second term on November 12, 2020.

I have been doing media analysis of the poll before, during and after the election. On one of the radio stations, I was asked to do a comparative analysis of the governorship election in 2016 and that of 2020. My take on that are as follows: In 2016, 19 candidates contested the election, in 2020, only 14 candidates vied for the Number 1 seat in Edo State. In 2016, the election was shifted due to a security threat from the initial September 10 to 28 September 2016. That of 2020 was not postponed. In 2016, the Nigeria Police deployed 25,000 of its officers and men to provide election security, in 2020, the police provided 31,000. In 2016, there was 1,925,105 registered voters, however, many more registered ahead of the 2019 General Election and the number now stands at 2,210, 534. Out of this number, over 1.7m voters collected their Permanent Voter Card. The number of Voting Points was also increased in 2020.

Furthermore, in 2016, Obaseki was the candidate of the APC while Ize-Iyamu was the torchbearer of the PDP; in 2020, the two major candidates swapped political party platforms. In 2016, INEC did not have Result Viewing Portal as it did in 2020. This enabled interested members of the public to follow the result collation process. Edo 2020 governorship election was the first state-wide election to be held during a pandemic by INEC. In 2016, the Oba of Benin didn’t have to sue for peace the way he did on September 2, 2020 when he had to call the APC and PDP candidates and their party chieftains to order.

The 2020 Edo State governorship election has been lauded both locally and internationally as having been largely peaceful, credible and successful. It was adjudged as having reflected the wishes of majority of the electorate in Edo State. The APC and its candidate in the election had also conceded defeat and congratulated the winner, Obaseki. That is the spirit of sportsmanship every political party and candidate is expected to show.

To my own mind, different factors aided Obaseki’s victory. One is his own courage. When he was denied opportunity to participate in the party primary of the APC, he simply defected to the main opposition party in Edo State, the PDP, on June 19, 2020. He negotiated with the other aspirants he met in the party and they all stepped down for him. He also negotiated to be allowed to keep his Deputy Governor, Phillip Shuaibu, who had defected with him from the APC to the PDP.  As the saying goes, he who is afraid of throwing a dice will never throw six. He took his chances and they paid off. He was also not selfish as he took with him his deputy. Should former Governor Akinwumi Ambode have behaved similarly when he lost out at the APC party primary in Lagos in 2018? Hmmm, Edo no be Lagos o! Ambode may not have won under PDP in Lagos as the party is very weak in the state.

The second factor that aided Obaseki to victory is the neutrality of the President, Major General Muhammadu Buhari (retd), the Independent National Electoral Commission and the security agencies. If any of the three had decided to be partisan, the outcome could have been different in Edo. Esan people of the Edo Central Senatorial District also decided to pitch their tent with Obaseki because one of their own is the Speaker of the State House of Assembly. Aside from that, they are also hoping that by 2024 when the next governorship election will fall due, the people of Edo South senatorial district where the bulk of the voting population is will also back one of their own for the Osadebey Government House.

As it were, there is an unwritten power rotation arrangement in the state for the power to shift from the Afemai people of Edo North to the Esan people of Edo Central to the Bini people in Edo South. Though Ize Iyamu is also a Bini man from Edo South, the thinking is that should he win, he would be entitled to a two-term of eight years and that would mean power being retained in the South for an extended period of 12 years. It is largely due to the alteration of this unwritten power rotation agenda of Nigeria for power to shift from North to South after eight years that was partly responsible for the defeat of President Goodluck Jonathan in 2015.

Many ‘Edolites’ were of the opinion that a vote for Ize-Iyamu would have been a third term for  Oshiomhole who had been in a fratricidal war of attrition with his estranged godson, Obaseki. Truly, Oshiomhole was the face of the campaign of Ize-Iyamu. He spoke more than the candidate and the Edo people were worried that he might turn out to be the de facto governor while Ize-Iyamu would be the de jure governor should he win. Oshiomhole himself had demonised godfatherism in Edo State and boasted that he had retired all of them such as Chief Tony Anenih from politics. Why then does he want to be the new godfather of Edo politics? The same goes for the video of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed of Tinubu where he asked the Edo people to reject Obaseki. Edo people viewed that as an affront and undue meddlesomeness in their state issue, hence the refrain that “Edo no be Lagos!”

So, what are the fortes of this election? One is that INEC was able to conduct a transparent and credible election. The Result Viewing Portal made it possible for citizens to follow through the announcement and collation of results; candidates in the elections also lived up to the Peace Pact signed on Tuesday, September 15, 2020. The election was largely peaceful with only pockets of violence reported. The visa ban or restriction placed on some of the arrowheads and masterminds of electoral violence ahead of the poll by the US government was a magic wand that made many of the political gladiators to behave themselves and not to do anything unbecoming. Media reportage of the election was also excellent with the accredited journalists ensuring that they engaged in conflict sensitive reportage. The accredited civil society organisations who observed the election also ensured that there was voter education as well as professional reportage on their field experiences in Edo last Saturday. It is also heartwarming that there was no federal might brought to bear on the election as the president played the role of a statesman with no partisan interest in the outcome of the Edo election.

On the flip side however, there were still the nagging challenges of widespread vote buying; low voter turnout which stood at 25.2 per cent according to statistics released by the Centre for Democracy and Development. In 2016, the voter turnout was put at 32.3 per cent. INEC is also yet to overcome the logistical challenge of timely opening of the poll as many of the Polling Units didn’t open as of 8:30am when accreditation and voting should have started. There were also several complaints about the Smart Card Reader being very slow in accrediting voters. Non-adherence to COVID-19 safety protocols was also a concern as many of the voters did not observe the social or physical distance requirement.

Obaseki should savour his victory but should not be too euphoric. There are lots of work to be done. The expectation of Edo people is high and I do pray he will be able to deliver on his campaign promises. Beyond that, he needs the support and cooperation of the Edo State House of Assembly to perform. He should therefore find a way to resolve the lingering crisis which has seen 17 out of the 24 member of the parliament pitching their tent with Ize-Iyamu’s camp. And as to what the Supreme Court will say about the election, I have no idea!