Projections into Nigeria in 2021

 

On Wednesday, January 6, 2021, I began my own TV show on Independent Television, Abuja. The programme themed, Development Focus with Jide Ojo, is scheduled to hold every mid-week from 7 – 9:30am. On the maiden edition, I hosted two gentlemen, a lawyer and human rights activist, Mike Utsaha and the Regional Director of Chartered Institute of Leadership and Governance (USA), Nigerian Chapter, Dr. Segun Ojarotade. On the programme, we analysed developmental projections for Nigeria in 2021.

My forecast for Nigeria this year is that this may actually be a tougher year than the preceding 2020. Recall that the country ended last year by slipping into economic recession, the worst in over 30 years and second time in five years. While Nigeria’s economic team members such as the Minister of Finance, Budget and National Planning, Mrs. Zainab Ahmed and the Central Bank of Nigeria governor, Godwin Emefiele, expressed optimism that Nigeria will be out of recession sooner than later, not many Nigerians share in that optimism. The reason for the is that two variables are still going to largely determine our economic performance this year. They are COVID-19 and insecurity.

Starting with the former, the country is in the heat of the second wave of the pandemic and this time round, the statistics of confirmed cases and morbidity are rising astronomically. As of Monday, January 11, 2021, out of the over one million people who had been tested for the virus since it was first detected in the country on February 27, 2020, the country had recorded a total of 101,331 confirmed cases and 1,361 COVID-19-related deaths. The recent spike has made some governors such as those of Lagos and Anambra to be contemplating fresh state-wide lockdown, while the Presidential Task Force on COVID-19 is also considering re-imposition of ban of some flights from South Africa and the United Kingdom. The PTF on Monday said it was also considering extension of school closure from the initial January 18 resumption date to a future date. As I write this, the Federal Government workers on Grade Level 12 downwards have been asked to stay off work for the time being.

The implication of these measures is that there is a loss of productivity and concomitantly revenue to fund the newly signed N13.58tn 2021 budget. It is noteworthy that COVID-19 is likely to make a mincemeat of all the revenue projections for 2021 so much so that the President and many state governors may resend their budgets to their respective legislative houses for scaling down.

Already, the Debt Management Office in a press release on Wednesday, September 10, 2020, said Nigeria’s total public debt stood at N31.009tn ($85.9bn) at the end of June 2020, representing an increase of 8.3 per cent from N28.628tn recorded on March 31, 2020. Accordingly, Nigeria’s debt profile increased by N2.38tn ($6.59bn) between March and June last year. Little wonder, the Federal Government earmarked N3.12tn for debt service in the 2021 budget proposal. The amount represents an increase of N445.57bn from the N2.68tn in 2020. The Federal Government is still going a-borrowing to be able to fund this year’s budget.

Unless we are able to contain and control the spread of COVID-19, open up the economy and incentivise micro, small and medium enterprises, the economy will remain in the doldrums and that means poverty, unemployment and insecurity will worsen. And talking of control of COVID-19, one of the measures being put in place is the procurement of vaccines from abroad. Last month, the Federal Government disclosed that the country would need a princely sum of N400bn for the purchase of COVID-19 vaccines for Nigerians. The Minister of Health, Dr. Osagie Ehanire, stated this before the leadership of the National Assembly on Tuesday, December 22, 2020. Ehanire said that the proposed amount would vaccinate 70 per cent of Nigeria’s over 200 million population at $8 per person. He added that N156bn would be needed in 2021 while N200bn would be used for vaccination in 2022. How I wish the Federal Government was able to give a quarter of that sum to Nigeria’s medical and pharmaceutical research institutes to collaboratively develop our homegrown, climate-friendly vaccines. As of now, most of the vaccines developed abroad need very cold storage to preserve their potency and efficacy.

For me, pending the time that the COVID-19 vaccines will be made available to all Nigerians, there is a need to ban large gatherings including religious centres, crowding at beaches, concerts, social gatherings of any sort. These in addition to non-pharmaceutical COVID-19 protocols of wearing face masks, handwashing, use of sanitisers and physical distancing should be strictly enforced. I am of the strong belief that if these measures are taken, we can avert another complete lockdown.

Come to think of it, does the government at all levels have the resources to provide palliatives for the vulnerable members of the society?

As earlier pointed out, another variable which may slow down our economic recovery is the raging insecurity across the length and breadth of the country. Nowhere in the country seems safe again. Nigerians are now at the mercy of undesirable elements ranging from bandits to insurgents, kidnappers and other criminal elements who operate with impunity. Nigerian security agencies seem overwhelmed. Despite the fact that several states have established vigilante groups with the six South-West states floating a joint security agency codenamed Operation Amotekun, the impact of these vigilante groups has yet to be felt in their various states of operation.

Insecurity has a deleterious impact on not only the economy but also on governance and societal wellbeing. For instance, the exponential increase in rural banditry has negatively affected the nation’s food production as many farmers can no longer access their farms due to incessant attacks on them by the bandits who not only rob them but also abduct and sometimes murder some of the hapless farmers and herders. Aside from farming, insecurity is affecting commerce and industry negatively. With the daily abduction of commuters on the nation’s highway, many have lost fortunes to the kidnappers with many businesses folding up. Another crime afflicting the country is vandalism. The reason why petroleum products have to be trucked across the country is because of the vandalism of the pipelines. This fiendish act has led to economic waste, revenue loss and environmental degradation.

Security and welfare are the primary purposes of government so says the 1999 Constitution of Nigeria in Section 14 (2)(b).  It is because government at all levels in Nigeria can no longer guarantee these cardinal responsibilities that makes many people say the country is a failing state. If the government is overwhelmed delivering on good governance, let it seek external support for better service delivery.

However, Nigerians can still be optimistic in the face of these daunting challenges. Like the Boys Scout motto, they need to “be prepared” always.