The ouster of Ganduje and 2027 chess game

 

"How are the mighty fallen and the weapons of war perished" is a quotation from the Bible, specifically 2 Samuel 1:27. And so it was the end of an era for the National Chairman of the ruling All Progressives Congress, Dr. Abdullahi Ganduje who threw in the towel after two years on the exalted seat. His sudden resignation purportedly on health ground came as a rude shock to party members and surprise to the nation. He was appointed on August 3, 2023 and resigned on June 27, 2025.

In 12 years of existence of the ruling All Progressives Congress, the party has had its own fair chair of leadership crisis. Thus far, the party has had about seven national chairmen. They are Chief Bisi Akande (Former Governor of Osun State), Chief John Odigie-Oyegun (Ex-governor of Edo State), Comrade (now Senator) Adams Oshiomhole (also former Edo State governor), Mai Mala Buni, current governor of Yobe State who held sway in acting capacity, Senator Adamu Abdullahi (Former governor of Nasarawa State) and Dr. Abdulahi Umar Ganduje (himself former governor of Kano State). Alhaji Ali Bukar Dalori, who is the Deputy National Chairman, North took over last Monday, June 30, 2025 in acting capacity pending when a substantial chairman will be appointed or elected. This high turnover of national chairman of APC is a pointer to the fact that all is not well in the governing party.

It is important to x-ray the rationale behind the sudden ouster of Ganduje. Is he really sick or was he forced to resign? A newspaper, Daily Nigerian of Saturday, June 28, 2025 posited that facts have emerged as to why the national chairman of the ruling APC Abdullahi Ganduje, abruptly “resigned”.  Ganduje was appointed as the national chairman of the ruling party on August 3, 2023, following the forced resignation of a former governor of Nasarawa State, Abdullahi Adamu. On Friday, DAILY NIGERIAN broke the story of Ganduje’s resignation, citing mounting pressure from the North Central zone as one of the reasons that brought abrupt end to the party chairman’s leadership. But sources familiar with the development said the party chairman was asked to resign by President Bola Tinubu, following a report of the State Security Service, SSS, that indicted him of corruption.

According to sources, the last straw that broke Mr Ganduje’s back was the shoddy handling of the FCT Area Councils primary elections, particularly Bwari Area Council primaries, during which the results were allegedly manipulated in favour of the highest bidders. A security source who preferred anonymity allegedly informed the newspaper that  the president directed the SSS to investigate the bribe-for-ticket allegations, following complaints of manipulations and corruption that permeated the primaries.

DAILY NIGERIAN gathered that upon submission of the report, the president summoned the chairman of Progressive Governors Forum and governor of Imo State, Hope Uzodimma as well as the senior special assistant to the president on Political Affairs, Ibrahim Masari, and directed them to “advise” Ganduje to honourably resign. The duo, according to the sources, was later joined by the governor of Yobe State, Mai Mala Buni, to meet Ganduje and convey the presidential message.

The newspaper further reported that President Tinubu had previously made attempts to remove Ganduje owing to mounting agitation from the North Central to correct political imbalance as well as complaints on corruption, extortion and selfish handling of party matters. In August 2024, Tinubu had reportedly planned to remove Ganduje, consequent upon which he would be nominated for ambassadorial posting in one of the West African countries. Ganduje reportedly lobbied the party patriarch, Bisi Akande, to prevail on the president to shelve the plan. According to sources, the president reluctantly acceded to Akande’s demand to allow Ganduje lead the party to convention in December 2025. In 2018, DAILY NIGERIAN exclusively published videos of Ganduje receiving bribes in dollars from a contractor, leading to a probe by the Kano State House of Assembly. The former National Chairman of APC  is currently facing corruption charges alongside his wife, son and other accomplices to the tune of over N50 billion in Kano.

It has also come out that Ganduje’s ouster is not unconnected with the plan by President Tinubu to woo the leader of Kwakwasiya Movement and chieftain of New Nigeria Peoples Party, Senator Rabiu Kwakwanso to the APC. Kwakwanso was a former governor of Kano State, a former minister of Defence and a former Senator. Indeed, Ganduje was a ex-Deputy Governor to him when he was a governor. According to June 28, 2025 Saturday’s PUNCH, when contacted to confirm Kwankwaso’s move to join the APC, one of his closest allies, Buba Galadima, said he was privy to a meeting involving some APC stakeholders and the presidency to “sacrifice Ganduje and the Vice President, Kashim Shettima.” The thinking is that the president allegedly does not want Kwakwanso to join the new coalition party, All Democratic Alliance when registered by the Independent National Electoral Commission. It is being touted that he may likely be chosen as a running mate to President Bola Tinubu during the 2027 presidential election. If this is true, it is a smart political strategy and a chess game intended to checkmate political opponents. Kano has the second largest voting population of approximately 6 million, after Lagos which has over 7 million registered voters.  Now, that state is at present being governed by opposition NNPP. If the president can poach Kwakwanso to APC, Governor Kabir Abba-Yusuf of Kano will defect with his godfather alongside with most, if not all, elected opposition members in Kano. That will make Kano a safe haven for Tinubu in 2027.

Out of the 10 states with the highest voting populations in Nigeria, six of them namely – Kano, Kaduna, Benue, Bauchi, Katsina and Plateau are from Northern Nigeria. As at now only three of them are APC states and the ruling party will want to flip those in opposition in its favour ahead of 2027. Unfortunately, Vice President Kashim Shettima may suffer a collateral damage as he is from North East, a zone that does not have the voting population of the North West geo-political zone. Thus, he may not be reappointed as a running mate in the lead up to the 2027 presidential election.

The question now is, who will effectively succeed Ganduje when the National Executive Committee of the party meets on July 24, 2025. Will he or she be someone from the North Central Zone which was denied that slot after the resignation of Senator Abdullahi Adamu in 2023? Will it be someone from the North West or elsewhere? How APC manages the simmering leadership crisis will determine if there will be an implosion in the party ahead of 2027 General Elections. Don’t forget that the CPC block in the APC has complained of marginalization and threatened to pull out of the merger with APC. Time will tell how all of these will pan out eventually.