State of play of Nigerian politics

 

Politics is the authoritative allocation of values, according to David Easton. Harold Lasswell in 1936 said, “It is about who gets what, when and how.”  As I predicted in January this year, 2026 is a year of high-wire politics. This is because Nigeria is preparing for its eighth general elections in this Fourth Republic, which started in 1999. Recall that we have a quadrennial electoral process where general elections are held every four years. We have successfully had polls in 1999, 2003, 2007, 2011, 2015, 2019, and 2023. The eighth one is scheduled for January 16 and February 6, 2027.  Gradually, the political temperature of Nigeria is heating up. A lot has happened since January that I need to bring you up to speed on.

It will be recalled that President Bola Tinubu, on February 18, 2026, signed the sixth Electoral Act into law. The passage of this piece of critical legislation was deliberately delayed by the National Assembly for whatever selfish reason(s). Nigerians had expected that electoral reform would be prioritised by the federal lawmakers, having inaugurated the committees to pilot these affairs in the Senate and House of Representatives in February 2024. Endless consultations, retreats and public hearings were held, and the expectation was that by mid-2025, both constitutional and electoral act amendments would have been concluded to give room for implementation of the new laws ahead of the next general elections.

The lawmakers keep shifting the goalpost of electoral reforms. At some point, they promised that the exercise would be concluded by December 2025. That was not done. As of now, voting has not been held on constitutional alterations that were much hoped for. Nigerian women, for instance, had expected that they would get about 47 extra seats in the Senate, House of Representatives and the State Houses of Assembly, but that has been kept in abeyance with nobody talking about the issue of constitution amendment again; at least for now. Even the electoral act that they managed to pass in February 2026 is not without flaws. A lot of hullabaloos greeted the insertion of a proviso to section 60(3), which mandated electronic transmission of polling unit results in real time, except where there are no internet services.

Subsequently, after the signing, several other sections of the new law have been cited to have issues. In March, the Inter-Party Advisory Council, the umbrella body representing registered political parties in the country, warned that they may boycott the 2027 general elections if controversial provisions in the newly enacted Electoral Act 2026 are not urgently reviewed.

The council expressed deep concern that several sections of the new law could weaken Nigeria’s multiparty democracy and undermine confidence in the electoral system ahead of the next national polls. One of the key concerns raised by the council is Section 84(2) of the Act, which excludes the use of indirect primaries in the selection of party candidates; IPAC also said: “The mandatory electronic transmission of election results after announcement at polling units must be restored.” The council also called for the removal of Sections 77(4–7) of the Act, which required political parties to submit digital and hard copies of their membership register, stronger penalties for vote buying, and the restoration of forged academic certificates as valid grounds for election petitions.

Rather than looking into the grey areas pointed out by the IPAC and other civil society organisations on the Electoral Act 2026, the National Assembly amended the Act by designating the court of appeal as the final arbiter for pre-election disputes involving state houses of assembly, the national assembly and governorship contests. They also empowered the court of appeal to hear pre-election matters involving presidential elections as a court of first instance, with appeals going to the supreme court. It remains to be seen if President Bola Tinubu will sign these amendments into law, given the fact that party primaries are already underway.

It will be recalled that the chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission, Prof. Joash Amupitan, on February 5, 2026, announced the registration of two new political parties, the Democratic Leadership Alliance and the Nigeria Democratic Congress. He said the DLA met all legal requirements, while the NDC was registered following a Federal High Court ruling. Less than two weeks after, precisely on February 16, 2026, Justice Mohammed Umar of the Federal High Court, Abuja Judicial Division, directed the INEC to register the National Democratic Party as a political party. This has brought the total number of registered political parties in Nigeria to 22.

It is, however, very interesting that the National Democratic Congress, which was born barely three months ago, has become the fastest-growing political party in Nigeria as of today.  The party, which held its national convention last Saturday, May 9, 2026, in Abuja, zoned its presidential ticket to Southern Nigeria for 2027 for a one-term. It promised that the presidential ticket would be zoned to Northern Nigeria in 2031. This has warranted a lot of political discourse as many political watchers saw this as a carrot that was dangled to former Anambra State governor, Peter Obi and former Kano State governor, Rabiu Kwakwanso, who made the duo dump the African Democratic Congress, a party they both joined barely two months ago, to now pitch their tent with the NDC on Sunday, May 3, 2026.  Recall that Peter Obi formally registered as a member of the ADC at his ward in Agulu, Anambra State, on March 7, 2026.

In less than two months after formally joining ADC, Obi dumped the party for NDC with many of his supporters in the Obidient Movement. The assumption is that he did not get a formal commitment from ADC zoning its presidential ticket to southern Nigeria and knowing full well that if he remains in ADC and contests the presidential ticket with Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, the former vice president will likely defeat him, and he may be forced to be his running mate for 2027. This would have been a reenactment of the 2019 scenario when the duo of Atiku and Obi ran a joint ticket under the Peoples Democratic Party in 2019. Many have called Peter Obi selfish and desperate, but he did what he did because he knew that playing a second fiddle in 2027 would sound his political death knell, as power will most likely shift back to northern Nigeria for eight years from 2031. Kwankwaso is believed to have agreed to deputise Obi in 2027, believing that he will take over from him (Obi) in 2031, having committed to do only one term as president of Nigeria.

Peter Obi’s defection to the NDC has been a blessing to the NDC, with 17 members of the House of Representatives joining the party on the floor of the House on Tuesday, May 5, 2026. However, Obi’s and Kwankwaso’s defection from ADC with multitudes of their supporters has made the party an empty shell and toppled it from being the game-changer in 2027. However, it has fragmented the ranks of opposition political parties and has punctured their plan to field one strong candidate against President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. The pathway to presidential victory for opposition political parties in 2027 has been further dimmed as it’s now going to be a reenactment of the 2023 presidential race.

From all indications, former vice president Atiku Abubakar will be the presidential candidate of ADC, Peter Obi will be the candidate of NDC, while Asiwaju Bola Tinubu will pick the ticket of the ruling All Progressives Congress. With 31 governors in APC and an overwhelming majority of federal and state legislators in the party, it’s game over for opposition as it concerns the presidential seat, except perhaps, if APC mismanaged the ongoing nomination process, and there are defections and anti-party activities by its leaders.

I.G: @jideojong