Money alone can’t win you elections in Nigeria

 

Last week on this page, I wrote about the nexus between political finance and corruption in governance in Nigeria. I x-rayed how a politician vying for elective office in Nigeria must be ready to shell out a lot of financial resources before, during and after elections if he or she intends to be in a pole position to be victorious in an electoral contest. I argued that this huge spending is a political investment meant to be recouped after inauguration, if such a candidate wins the election.  This is what partly fuels corruption in governance.

Since the publication of that article, I have had the privilege of discussing the issues raised in the piece on two national televisions, namely Channels Television and Silverbird Television. Interestingly, it is noteworthy that even though money is a strong variable in politics, money qua money is insufficient to guarantee electoral victory. An election is not always won by the highest bidder. One may spend billions to vie for elective office and still lose. Money is just one of the factors, and I would like to discuss a few other variables that may tilt an election in a contestant’s favour.

Political party of choice is very important in politics. There are about 22 registered political parties in Nigeria at this time. However, only a couple of them are known nationwide. These are the ruling All Progressives Congress and the People’s Democratic Party, which governed Nigeria for 16 years (1999 – 2015). There are also political parties which are not strong nationally but have strong zonal appeal. These include the defunct Alliance for Democracy, which won most elections in the South-West geo-political zone in 1999. Unfortunately, the fortune of the AD dwindled considerably after it lost five out of the six governorship seats it had in 2003.

Before it went into merger with other legacy parties to form APC in 2013, All Nigeria Peoples Party and Congress for Progressive Change were regional parties that thrived most in Northern Nigeria. At present, All Progressives Grand Alliance is best known in Anambra State and, by extension, the five states of South-East, namely Ebonyi, Imo, Enugu, Abia and Anambra. Outside of Igboland, the party struggles politically. Parties like Labour Party, New Nigeria Peoples Party, Allied Peoples Movement, Social Democratic Party and Accord Party still struggle for national prominence after several decades of registration.

So, an aspirant to an elective office need to first study which of the political parties is most supported by his or her people. Contesting an election in a political party that is little known among your constituents may be a limiting factor to your electoral victory. Party platform matters because our law at present does not recognise or permit independent candidacy and, as such, an aspirant has to be sponsored by a party. Any party with robust structures from Ward to national level should be able to assist candidates sponsored by the party. This is the reason many aspirants will rather pay millions of naira in Expression of Interest and Nomination Fees under a well-known political party rather than get a free or cheap nomination form under an obscure party.

Another strong factor in politics is a contestant’s pedigree and social capital. What gave Chief MKO Abiola victory in the 1993 presidential election or worked in favour of Ayo Fayose in the 2003 Ekiti governorship election was not the huge resources they spent on their elections but the goodwill they had built over time. Abiola was a Pillar of Sport in Africa, a philanthropist per excellence, and a business octopus. He had over 100 chieftaincy titles across Africa and was the Aare-ona-Kakanfo (the generalissimo) of Yorubaland. Abiola leveraged on his social capital to win a pan-Nigeria mandate in 1993 to the extent that he even defeated his challenger, Alhaji Bashir Tofa, in his home state of Kano. Fayose, on the other hand, was credited with supplying potable water to several communities in Ekiti State before contesting for governorship in 2003. He was a grassroots politician known to freely mingle with ordinary people, eating and drinking with them while attending their social events.

Leveraging political movements has also been a veritable pathway to electoral victory. In 2015, several candidates won elections by identifying with the APC presidential candidate at that time, General Muhammadu Buhari. Before then, Buhari had contested for the presidential seat in 2003, 2007 and 2011 without success. However, he had a cult followership in Northern Nigeria and was winning repeatedly in the 19 northern states but failing to make an appreciable impact in the 17 southern states.  Buhari, whose alias at that time was ‘Mai Gasikiya’, an honest man, was perceived as incorruptible and someone who identifies with the masses. So, when his party, CPC, went into the merger to form APC and he won the presidential ticket, many candidates under APC started making huge billboards with Buhari’s photograph in large print while theirs were made smaller and imposed on Buhari’s photo. It worked for many, and despite not having huge funds for their campaigns, they won by using Buhari’s portraits and names for their campaigns.

A similar thing happened in 2023, when several Labour Party candidates identified with Peter Obi under the Obidient Movement and coasted home to victory using the name and portrait of the former Anambra State governor and Labour Party presidential candidate. In Kano, several candidates under the NNPP used the name and portrait of Engineer Rabiu Kwankwanso and the Kwankwansiya Movement, which he established, to win their elections. It will be recalled that in the First Republic and Second Republic in the Western Region, several candidates leveraged on the name of the first premier of the region, Chief Obafemi Awolowo, to win under the Action Group and later. Unity Party of Nigeria, respectively. This shows the power of political movements.

Another strong variable is the influence of political godfathers. These godfathers sometimes provide the resources to make their god sons and daughters win at the poll, while in some other instances, the god children have their own financial resources but need the godfather’s influence on the political ecosystem.

As I explained on Silverbird TV last Monday, July 20, there are different variants of political godfathers. In Oyo State, the strongman of Ibadan politics, Alhaji Lamidi Adedibu, used his influence and political networks to ensure that most, if not all, the candidates he supports win at the poll. The proteges are the one that funds him to get that political coverage. The scenario is different in Anambra between Chief Chris Uba and Dr Chris Ngige, where the former was the one who bankrolled the election of the latter in 2003. Similar to the Anambra phenomenon is the Rivers State example where the current FCT Minister, Nyesom Wike, heads a rainbow coalition that determines who gets elected into any political office in the oil-rich state.

The greatest godfather of Nigeria’s politics in this Fourth Republic, which started in 1999, is the incumbent President, Bola Tinubu. He has used his socio-political capital to produce a Vice President (Prof. Yemi Osinbajo), several governors, especially in the South-West geo-political zone, namely in Lagos, Ogun, Oyo, Ekiti, Osun and Ondo State. Several senators, House of Representatives and State Houses of Assembly owe their flourishing political careers to the Jagaban of Borgu. Asiwaju Bola Tinubu also made his wife, Oluremi Tinubu, a three-term senator of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. Tinubu is not a regional player but a national one; his loyalists occupy strategic positions in the National Working Committee of the ruling APC, and as such he can facilitate nomination tickets for his allies and proteges. A combination of the aforementioned factors is what guarantees electoral victory for contestants and not just financial muscle.

I.G: @jideojong