Three major impediments to Nigeria’s 2019 elections

Periodic elections are one of the pillars of every democracy. Elections give the electorate, otherwise known as voters, the opportunity to either renew the mandate of the incumbent or replace them with a new set of leaders. The carrot and stick nature of election is perhaps the most glamorous thing about democracy. It is important to stress here that unlike the notion held by many people, including our political leaders, elections are not a day event but a process. Elections can be likened to a social activity like wedding which takes months or years to plan for but takes place over a day or two.

The Independent National Electoral Commission served a two-year advance notice of 2019 general elections. The commission on March 9, 2017 informed Nigerians that the elections would hold on February 16 and March 2. It has even gone ahead to give dates of general elections for the next 55 years. It’s exactly 276 days to February 16, 2019 when the first set of elections are expected to be held. However, I am disturbed about three things which I think can impact negatively on the preparations and indeed, holding of the elections. They are the legal framework, funding and insecurity.

The first hurdle is that of the legal framework for the 2019 elections. INEC has planned for next year’s polls using the 2010 Electoral Act as amended as well as the 1999 Constitution, as amended in 2010. Since 2015, the National Assembly has embarked on constitution and Electoral Act amendments. The National Assembly and indeed all the 36 state Houses of Assembly have voted on the constitution amendments. I was hoping that the National Assembly would have by now collated those amendments that met the two-thirds majority cut-off from the states, passed them and sent the same to the President for assent.  As a corollary to that, the National Assembly has passed the Electoral Act 2010 amendments and sent to the President for assent which he has withheld based on objections to three of the clauses. The objections majorly have to do with Section 25 which not only seeks to reorder the sequence of election but adds an additional day to the two days earlier proposed by INEC.  Justice Ahmed Mohammed of Abuja Federal High Court had on Wednesday, April 25, 2018 told the National Assembly that it lacks power to dictate to the INEC the sequence of elections.  The Senate had earlier on April 12 resolved to remove the three offensive clauses and passed the bill to the President for assent. However, on the aftermath of the April 25 judgment of the Federal High Court, there was a report to the effect that the National Assembly was contemplating appealing the court judgment.

I wish the Senate and indeed the House of Representatives too will remove those offensive portions of the bill rather than appeal the court judgment. INEC needs to be certain about which legal framework it will be using to conduct the 2019 elections. Some of the noble provisions of this Electoral Amendment Bill include legalising the Smartcard Reader, lifting of ban on the use of Electronic Voting, pegging the amount political parties can charge on nomination forms, how political parties can replace candidates who die in the course of election, etc.

There is a cost implication to implementing some of the new laws and as such INEC needs to factor those cost into its election budget. Aside from that, there is a need for sufficient time for public sensitisation on these new laws. I am hoping that the current brouhaha over a new legal framework for elections will not end up like that of 2014 when ex-President Goodluck Jonathan’s refusal to assent to the constitution amendment thwarted the effort to strengthen our legal regime.

Did you know that the delay in the passage of the 2018 Federal Government budget is hindering preparations for the 2019 general elections? The Commissioner for Voter Education at INEC, Prince Adedeji Soyebi, said this on Tuesday, April 3, 2018 on Sunrise Daily, a programme on Channels Television. Soyebi said the conventional budget for the running of the commission had been approved, but the budget for the 2019 elections, which was submitted separately, had not been approved, adding that it was worrisome given the fact that the 2019 elections were less than a year away.

Yes, by the time you’re reading this, the National Assembly might have passed the budget as the leaderships of the Senate and House of Representatives promised last week. However, the buck does not stop with the National Assembly. We have to hope and pray that the budget will be transmitted to the President on time for his assent and that there will be no controversies such as witnessed last year over budget padding and that the President will find it implementable and assent to it expeditiously. Even at that, we also have to hope that after the President’s assent, the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank of Nigeria will promptly release INEC’s funds to it. Thankfully, the commission is now on a first line change on the Consolidated Revenue Fund.

For many who do not know, many of the sensitive and non-sensitive materials that INEC will use for the elections are not found on the shelves of any company. They are customised materials and are also procured from overseas. We should also not forget that it is criminal for any institution to award contracts without cash backing and the Bureau of Public Procurement certification. INEC will have to wade through this bureaucratic bottleneck. Thus, timely funding is highly desirable and non-negotiable.  It is also estimated that the next general elections may gulp between N250bn and N300bn. I do hope sufficient provisions will be made for the commission to enable it deliver on credible and successful elections next year.

Lastly, the growing insecurity is a potent threat to the conduct of 2019 elections. Aside from insurgency and herdsmen attacks in Northern Nigeria, politicians have started to also heat up the polity. The ruling All Progressives Congress which is currently conducting its congresses and convention has not helped matters. In the May 5 and 12, 2018 Ward and Local Government congresses, a lot of violent incidents were unleashed leading to loss of lives in Delta and Lagos states. Party secretariats were also torched or vandalised in Imo and Rivers states. Even our courts were not spared. Last Friday, May 11, some APC members allegedly invaded Port Harcourt High Court beating up everyone in sight and locking up the gates to the court. This was reminiscent of what happened in Ekiti State in September 2014. This ugly development has put democracy under threat in Nigeria and is quite ominous. In case you didn’t know, it was reported in The Guardian of Monday, May 14, 2018 that political intrigues ahead of the 2019 general elections have made stock market investors lose N729bn in three months of decline. There are even fears being expressed that 2019 elections may not hold as scheduled if the security situation in the country does not improve significantly.

I challenge all concerned authorities to work hard to ensure that the elections hold as scheduled. Meanwhile, in case you registered during the INEC Continuous Voters Registrations between April and December 2017, I have good news for you. Your Permanent Voters Card is ready and you can go to INEC Local Government  office where you registered to collect it from next Monday,  May 21, 2018.

As someone aptly said, INEC will not count your prayer points but your votes. So, get involved in the electoral process, go collect your PVC and make sure you vote at upcoming elections.