Musings on the epochal US 2020 elections

 

As an election expert with a root in Nigeria’s civil society, I often get invited to discuss both national and international elections on various media channels. What was however surprising to me was that the raft of invitations I got to discuss the 2020 US elections especially the presidential poll. Conservatively, I must have granted about 20 interviews on this year’s US presidential election with a record high seven interviews granted last Monday, November 9, 2020 to major TV and radio stations. What do the Nigerian media want to know about the US elections? They asked me about the lessons learnt, potential impact of Joe Biden’s presidency on Nigeria, nay Africa, likely economic implications of Biden’s presidency on Africa as well as what his emergence as the 46th US president meant for international relations and politics.

No doubt, the victory of Biden and Kamala Harris as president-elect and vice president-elect after the nerve-wracking November 3, 2020 presidential poll is epoch-making. That victory signified different things to different people.   Biden’s election as the fifth youngest Senator in America’s history at the age of 29 in 1972 validated the claim of Not-Too-Young-To- Run advocates in Nigeria. His election on November 3, 2020 at the age of 77 and therefore the oldest American president also validated the Not-Too-Old-To-Rule of Nigeria’s gerentocratic politicians. In Biden, the American electorate got two for the price of one. Biden is No. 92 longest serving lawmaker in American history having served as senator for a whopping 36 years and 12 days. He moved from there to become Vice President to former President Barack Obama in 2008 and served for two terms. Thus, he is a man well steeped in both legislature and executive arms of government. Biden was pronounced president-elect exactly 48 years after being elected as Senator in 1972. He is also the second Catholic to be elected American president, the first being JF Kennedy. His election therefore resonates with billions of Catholic adherents all over the world.

As for Harris, 56, the Vice President-elect, she has shattered the glass ceiling by being the first American woman to be elected into that exalted position.  She’s not just a woman but also a lawyer and serving senator from California. She’s the first woman and first African-American   to be elected as Attorney General of California in 2010. In 2016, she became the first Indian-American to be elected as a U.S. senator as well as the second African-American to achieve that feat. Incidentally, apart from being a lawyer, senator and democrat like Biden, both of them are authors of several books.

Are there political lessons to learn from the US electoral systems? Yes! First is the plurality of the voting methods.  In the 2020 elections, the first ever to be conducted during a pandemic, COVID-19, the American electorate were presented with three different voting choices: Vote by mail, vote in-person ahead of the final day for election which was on Tuesday, November 3 or wait and vote in-person on the final day of voting. While the Democrats and especially the Joe Biden presidential campaign organisation encouraged and mobilised their supporters to take advantage of early voting especially voting by mail, the Republicans urged their supporters to wait and vote in-person on November 3. These options made it possible for the US to achieve a record breaking turnout of voters as 102 million out of the estimated 160 million voters cast their ballot before November 3, 2020. For the mail in ballot, some states like Nevada also provide an opportunity for voters with defective ballot to rectify such defects such as irregular signature, change of address, etc. Even on the final Election Day, the electorate had an opportunity to vote for between 12 and 13 hours i.e. 7am – 8pm.

Unlike in Nigeria, each of the 50 states in the US has different electoral laws. Some allow potential voters to register and vote the same day while others have a cut-off date. Unlike here where campaigns end 48 hours to the election day, in the US, campaigns still go on even on election day. In the US, there are provisions for independent candidacy, out-of-country voting, Diaspora voting, voting by prisoners who are not on death row, etc.  There is certainty in the days of the US election, it’s the first Tuesday in November of the election year and on that day, there is no shutting down the country as is the practice here. Just like elsewhere in the world, elections in the US are a money guzzler. Information from an organisation known as Money Tracker revealed that as of October 22, 2020, Biden had received $1.51bn while Trump had received $1,57bn in campaign finance support much of that coming from crowd funding with small donations.

In the US, presidential candidates are mandated to set up transition committees before their elections in order to pave the way for smooth transition of power. It is not only the election day that is sacrosanct in the US, the same with the handover date. A new president is sworn in midday of January 20 of the following year after election. Thus, baring any unforeseen circumstances, Biden and Harris will take the oath of office on January 20, 2021. Biden as the 46th president and Harris as the 48th Vice President of the United States of America.

In the US, elections are held every two years. I was privileged to observe the mid-term elections in 2010. In this year, there were elections into the 435 House of Representatives seats, some Senate seats, some governorship seats, Board of Education, Health etc. Some states in the US elect their judges and conduct referendum during elections. One of the heartwarming news in the 2020 elections is that three Nigerian-Americans, two men and one lady, out of nine that vied for various political offices, were elected into different US state congresses. What a rare feat! In the US, a partisan Secretary of State who is elected on a party platform conducts elections for each of the 50 states.

What exactly is the implication of Biden’s presidency for us in Nigeria, nay Africa? I for one do not see much benefit accruing to us as a result of Biden’s presidency. He’s most likely to sustain Trump’s America First policy. However, we are more likely to be treated with respect with more Nigerians getting Visa to the US, unlike under Trump. The United States Agency for International Development will still sustain its operations in Africa but may be cash-strapped to do much given the negative impact of COVID-19 on the American economy.  For me, what Africa, nay Nigeria should push for under Biden is not for more aid but fair trade. We should seek for improved trade relations. This is the time Africa should take better opportunity of the African Growth and Opportunity Act which is a United States Trade Act, enacted on May 18, 2000. Nigeria and indeed Africa can gain more optimally under this Act by ensuring that the raw materials which are being exported to the US are processed into finished or semi-finished products. We should also seek for more foreign direct investment from the US entrepreneurs.