Key issues that will shape Nigeria in 2023

 

We’re in the second week of 2023 and it is important to track some of the issues that will make or mar Nigeria this year. Many are quick to jump to conclusion that the forthcoming seventh general elections in this Fourth Republic are perhaps the major issue that will define the country this year. That is partially true. However, others that are not being reckoned with right now include the National Population and Housing Census scheduled for April, the ongoing constitutional amendment, the economy, and indeed the lingering insecurity.

Yes, the preparations for the 2023 general elections have reached a fever pitch with 44 days to the polls. Like I said in this column last week, power will change hands in approximately 1,491 federal and state constituencies where elections will hold. Save for those who may be lucky to retain their positions after their successful re-election bid, others will have to give way to new ‘sheriffs.’ Presidential and governorship seats where their present occupiers are serving out their second and final term will definitely receive new occupants on May 29. Lawmakers who are successful with their re-election alongside their new counterparts will be inaugurated in June across the federation. However, as the saying goes, “Between the promise and the promised land, there’s a wilderness.”

The Independent National Electoral Commission has said the worsening insecurity, especially attacks on its facilities, constitutes a clear and present danger to the successful conduct of the polls.  Arsonists have torched no fewer than 52 INEC offices in the last three years. To what end is this being done? It is perhaps to prevent or derail electioneering. It will seem like some undesirable elements want a force majure that will lead to a state of emergency and prevent a peaceful transition of power on May 29. This should not be allowed to happen although recent political developments in the United States after the 2020 presidential election and Brazil after the October 2022 presidential poll give cause for concern as supporters of incumbents that were defeated in both countries decided to attack democratic institutions. While the unpleasant political developments in Brazil and US were largely post elections, that of Nigeria is pre-election.

Imagine that a few weeks to the polls someone decided to drag the INEC Chairman, Prof Mahmood Yakubu, to the court claiming false asset declaration and asking him to resign. Thankfully, last Wednesday, January 4, 2023, Justice M. A. Hassan of the Federal Capital Territory High Court in his judgment dismissed the suit filed by Somadina Uzoabaka challenging the legitimacy of the assets declared by Yakubu for being incompetent and lacking in merit. For those who do not know, the former Chief Justice of Nigeria, Walter Onnoghen, was removed from office in 2019 few weeks to the elections over similar asset declaration issues. The questions on the lips of many people are, how did Somadina gain access to Mahmood’s asset declaration form which is confidential? Is this fellow being used by some vested politically exposed persons or groups to derail the 2023 elections?

 It will be recalled that aside from the attempt to remove the INEC chairman, there have also been attempts, both in and out of court, to prevent INEC from using the Bi-modal Voter Accreditation System which is the much touted game changer for the 2023 elections.  This is despite the legal backing for the use of the device by Section 47(2) of the Electoral Act, 2022.

Apart from midwifing a peaceful and credible 2023 General Elections, the Major General Muhammadu Buhari (retd.) administration also promised to deliver an acceptable National Population and Housing Census initially slated for 2022 but has to be postponed to April 2023. Not many Nigerians know that the country has over a century of experience in conducting census. The first census took place in 1866 and has been taking place at irregular intervals since then. According to United Nations recommendations, National Population and Housing Census is supposed to be held every 10 years, but funding challenge and the lack of political will have made the country’s political leadership not to obey this recommendation. The last census held in Nigeria was in 2006, and another one fell due in 2016 but is now scheduled for April 2023. The National Population Commission has promised the very first digital census in 2023, and Nigerians need to give the commission the benefit of the doubt that despite past census controversies, the one being planned for this year will deliver a credible outcome and be acceptable to all. It is good that it is scheduled for after the 2023 general elections.

If the NPC is able to conduct a credible census, it will assist the incoming government in national planning. Hitherto, we rely on estimates of foreign organizations such as UNICEF, the World Bank, and UNDP for sectoral planning. Not many Nigerians know that the NPC is also responsible for the registration of births and deaths. This is because of the lack of sufficient public enlightenment. It is advised that given the enormous resources being deployed into the conduct of the 2023 NPHC, the commission will do a better job than achieved in previous exercises which were enmeshed in controversies of inaccuracy of published figures. Hopefully, the digitisation of the planned exercise will boost its credibility.

The constitutional alteration exercise has been on since 2019 or thereabout and the National Assembly in March 2022 sent 44 of the passed bills to the State houses of assembly for concurrence. Billions of naira have been spent on the exercise for retreats and public hearings. Unfortunately, according to the Deputy President of the Senate, Ovie Omo-Agege, while speaking to State House correspondents last Thursday, January 5 in Abuja, local government autonomy seems to be the sticky issue stalling the voting of SHA on the bills. It is expected that if appropriate lobbying is carried out by the leadership of the National Assembly and the president to the governors, the constitutional alteration exercise can still be salvaged and consummated. That will bring about the restructuring of Nigeria as some of the provisions already passed by the National Assembly will affect the devolution of powers among other things.

The economy is ailing and the indicators are very depressing. Nigeria’s N21.83tn 2023 federal budget has about N12tn deficit component. The capital expenditure component is about N6.4tn while debt service gulps N6.3tn. In spite of these, the National Assembly still went ahead to insert N770bn constituency project funds. With 60 per cent revenue shortfall, our revenue goes largely into debt servicing. Yet, there are a lot of leakages in the financial system with oil theft, non-remittance of revenue by government-owned enterprises, and outright embezzlement of public funds posing Herculean challenges to the survival of Nigeria. It therefore will not come as a surprise if the incoming administrations at the federal, state, and local government levels after May 29 claim to have met an empty treasury after their inauguration.

Right now, multidimensional poverty plaguing the country puts 133 million compatriots below the poverty line according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Unemployment figure stands at over 33 per cent as many micro, small and medium enterprises groan under the heavy cost of doing business. Mortality rate of many businesses in Nigeria is high, largely due to the high cost of energy (electricity and petroleum products), insecurity, and lack of adequate infrastructure not forgetting government’s policy summersault.  It is as sure as death that the petrol subsidy will be removed in the second half of 2023. This is long overdue as the trillions of naira being spent on this opaque exercise can best be deployed to improve decadent social infrastructure.  When this is done, there is bound to be a rise in commodity prices, and this can lead to social unrest unless cleverly managed.

Insecurity binds every other variable discussed here together. Unless the government at all levels are able to collaboratively find a lasting solution to this growing menace, there may not be elections, census, economic growth, and good governance. In fairness to the outgoing Buhari regime, there has been significant improvement in the security and defence budget but the impact is still weak. Just last Saturday, January 7, at Igueben, bandits attack the train station and made away with about 30 commuters. They are demanding N620m for their release. Section 14(2)(b) of the 1999 Constitution states, “Security and welfare of citizen shall be the primary purpose of government.” I hope 2023 will bring this to fruition.