Likely impact of insecurity on Nigeria’s 2023 General Election

 

Background

Last week, the Independent National Electoral Commission warned that the 2023 general election, which is just over a month away, faces serious threat of postponement or cancellation if the waves of insecurity in parts of the country fail to improve. INEC chairman, Prof. Mahmood Yakubu, who was represented by the chairman, Board of Electoral Institute Prof. Abdullahi   Zuru, disclosed this last week Monday, January 9, 2023 in Abuja at the Validation of Election Security Training Resources. Since that disclosure was made the federal government through the Minister of Information and Culture, Alhaji Lai Mohammed and even INEC Chairman has assured Nigerians that the election will hold as scheduled.

However, at a press conference on Friday, January 13, 2023, the PDP National Publicity Secretary, Debo Ologunagba, said APC was trying to blackmail critical election stakeholders to accede to its design to postpone the 2023 general elections, particularly the presidential election. However, in a swift reaction on same day, Bayo Onanuga, the director, media and publicity for the APC Presidential Campaign Council, said the PDP is confused and afraid of its own shadows and should not be taken serious by Nigerians.

Any precedent on postponement of elections in Nigeria?

Even though Prof. Zuru’s comment generated a lot of jitters in the minds of Nigerians, postponing elections as a result of violence is not new. In fact, several general and off-cycle state governorship elections have been postponed in the past as a result of palpable threat of violence. 2015 General Election, for instance, was postponed for six weeks due to the threat posed by insurgency in North East Nigeria. Election in Ihiala Local Government Area of Anambra State was suspended on November 6, 2021 during the last governorship election in that state due to threat of violence. INEC chairman informed civil society organisations present at the October stakeholders meeting that the Commission could not conduct bye elections into about 30 constituencies as at then partly due to threat of violence.

What does the law say about postponement of elections?

Electoral Act 2022 in Section 24 (2) says “Where a date has been appointed for the holding of an election, and there is reason to believe that a serious breach of the peace is likely to occur if the election is proceeded with on that date or it is impossible to conduct the elections as a result of natural disasters or other emergencies, the Commission may postpone the election and shall in respect of the area, or areas concerned, appoint another date for the holding of the postponed election, provided that such reason for the postponement is cogent and verifiable.”

Subsection (3) further says that “Where an election has commenced and there is reason to believe that there is or has been substantial disruption of election in a polling unit or constituency or it is impossible to continue with the election occasioned by threat to peace and security of electoral officials and materials, the Commission shall suspend the election and appoint another date for the continuation of the election or the process.”  Section 24(4) says “Where the Commission appoints a substituted date in accordance with subsections (2) and (3), there shall be no return for the election until polling has taken place in the area or areas affected.” Finally, sub. (5) says, “Notwithstanding subsection (3), the Commission may, if satisfied that the result of the election will not be affected by voting in the area or areas in respect of which substituted dates have been appointed, direct that a return of the election be made.”

Why politicians use violence to undermine elections

The truth is that Nigerian politicians from time immemorial has been using Machiavellian principle to aid their victory. They believe as Nicolo Machiavelli espoused in his classic book “The Prince” that “the end justifies the means”. That’s why desperate politicians use violence and vote buying to undermine the electoral process but to boost their chances of success at the poll. We are all living witnesses to the serial attacks on INEC offices in the lead up to the 2023 polls. At the last count, over fifty INEC offices have been razed in the last three years with colossal loss to the Commission. Not only that, campaigns which started on September 28, 2022 has recorded over 52 incidences of violence according to the Inspector General of Police, Usman Baba  who said in November 2022 that sitting governors are among those sponsoring political violence in the lead up to the 2023 General Election.

Likely impacts of violence on 2023 polls

There are several implications and likely impacts that violence may have on next month’s general election. First is the likelihood of INEC postponing the elections nationwide or in parts of the country. As earlier said, this has been a constant feature of Nigeria’s elections. Secondly, it may lead to a situation where already trained poll workers may back out of being deployed at the last minute when it may be difficult to replace them. Although I know for a fact that INEC often recruit additional five to 10 per cent redundant poll workers to tackle this kind of development. However, in the event to mass boycott, INEC’s extra personnel may not be able to fill in the gap. As a counter measure and in order to incentivise these election personnel, INEC usually take group insurance for its permanent and ad-hoc poll workers.

 Furthermore, violence may make some of the earlier shortlisted road transport union workers who are to help in conveying election personnel and materials to Polling Units to withdraw their services. It has happened before that National Union of Road Transport Workers Unions and Boat Owners Associations withdraw their services on the eve of or on the day of election due to fear of losing their vehicles or boats to violence. I don’t know if INEC will be able to provide adequate insurance cover for these election project vehicles and their drivers in order to mitigate their loss in the event of attack.

More worrisome is the likelihood of violence leading to unprecedented voter apathy during the forthcoming polls. For avoidance of doubt, the forthcoming seventh general election in this Fourth Republic is the most expensive election to be conducted in Nigeria at over N478.6 billion. Recall that INEC got N305bn in the 2022 Federal Government budget and additional N173.6bn in 2023 FG budget for the conduct of the poll. This gargantuan sum is exclusive of millions of Dollars, Pounds and Euros brought by international donor partners such as United Nations Development Programme, European Union, United States Agency for International Development, United Kingdom Agency for International Development and several other embassies to support Nigeria’s democratic project. It will be very disheartening if at the end of the day there could not be substantial improvement in the voters turn out over and above the 35 percent recorded in the 2019 General Election due to fear of violence.

Another palpable fear over 2023 General Election is the fear of cyberattack on the INEC’s portals, servers and databases. It has been reported that some desperate politicians have gone to Dubai and China to recruit hackers. The PUNCH of December 15, 2022 reported that the Independent National Electoral Commission has planned to spend N117bn on electoral technologies in line with its decision to deploy the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System and the Result Viewing Portal in the 2023 elections. This came as the commission is also investing in top-notch cyber security systems to ward off attacks by hackers against its servers, website and database. With this huge sums of money being invested in cybersecurity by INEC, it is hoped that there will be value for money at the end of the polls because any successful cyber-attack on INEC’s devices will becloud the integrity of the election results and credibility of the overall polls.

Conclusion

I have repeatedly said that INEC alone cannot ensure peaceful and credible elections. It needs the support of security agencies, candidates and their political parties as well as media and civil society. Desperate politicians who are hell-bent on railroading the forthcoming general election must be proactively fished out by the security agents and prosecuted. Electorate must also resist any attempt to use them to foment trouble. They should come out en masse and be orderly at their Polling Units.

Jide Ojo is a  Development Consultant, Author and  Public Affairs Analyst.

Article first published in today's THISDAY newspaper, Nigeria