Tinubu’s first anniversary of a wobbling presidency

 

Hearty congratulations to Jagaban Borgu, the 16th president of Nigeria, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, and the 28 governors who were inaugurated this day last year. So soon, it’s a year in government for them and the scorecard is there for all to see. The truth is that the approval rating of Tinubu right now is abysmally low. Rather than improve the standard of living of Nigerians, he has rather been able to increase our cost of living beyond bearable limits. Under former President Muhammadu Buhari, all our development indices were pointing south and Jagaban has further taken us south-south.

Lest readers accuse me of speaking in parables, what was the exchange rate of naira to the dollar under Buhari? It was about N460 to $1. On Monday, $1 was exchanged for about N1,339.  In May 2023, the interest rate was 18.5 per cent according to the Central Bank of Nigeria. Just last week, the same CBN increased the interest rate to 26.25 per cent. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in May 2023, the headline inflation rate increased to 22.41 per cent relative to the April 2023 headline inflation rate which was 22.22 per cent.

Fast forward to 2024, the same NBS says that Nigeria’s inflation rate rose to 33.69 per cent in April 2024 compared to the March 2024 headline inflation rate which was 33.20 per cent. “On a year-on-year basis, the headline inflation rate was 11.47 per cent points higher compared to the rate recorded in April 2023, which was 22.22 per cent. According to Statista, as of June 2023, the food inflation rate in Nigeria stood at around 25.09 per cent. Trading Economics said the cost of food in Nigeria increased to 40.53 per cent in April 2024.

According to the 2023/2024 United Nations Development Programme report on Human Development Report, “For Nigeria, the HDI has shown a 22 per cent increase in 19 years but remains low at 0.548, categorising the country as having low human development. The report emphasises Nigeria’s significant loss in HDI due to inequality, estimated at 32.7 per cent. Gender disparities persist, with a notable gap between male and female HDI values and a Gender Inequality Index ranking placing Nigeria poorly. Furthermore, Nigeria’s Multidimensional Poverty Index indicates that 33 per cent were multidimensionally poor in 2021.”

Nigeria’s Economic Summit Group in February 2024 said, “Nigeria’s misery index – the sum of unemployment and inflation rates rose to 26.5 per cent as of 2023 Q3. Nigeria has one of the world’s highest misery indexes, with many Nigerians leading a miserable life as purchasing power weakens due to high inflation, pushing many people into poverty.”

Truth be told, Tinubu did not inherit a healthy economy from his predecessor, and he is not the only one to be held responsible for the appalling state of governance and development in the country. As I said on this page last week, there are 11,082 elective political offices in Nigeria, from councillors to the President. There are three tiers and three arms of government. However, there is a popular adage that ‘it is the front horse that the back ones use to pace.’ More so, the fish rots from the head. There are a number of things the president has done that I consider inappropriate. The first is the timing of the subsidy removal on petrol. I fully supported the removal of the subsidy but he should have done some housekeeping to know if it won’t have the kind of backlash it has caused.

According to Buhari, there was a provision for petrol subsidy till June 2023. Why remove it in May without proper consultation?  The president should have taken a physical tour of the Dangote refinery and the Port Harcourt refinery to know about their readiness to start producing in order to prevent the continued importation of refined petroleum products. As it were, a year into this administration, neither of the two facilities has started to produce petrol. Thus, we continue to import for domestic consumption. The floating of the exchange of the naira is also ill-timed. That’s what has further weakened and devalued our currency to the extent that the purchasing power parity is nothing to write home about.

I did not expect that given the haemorrhaging economy, the president would still go ahead to appoint 48 ministers; many of whom are not adding any value to governance. I had looked forward to a lean and smart government, not a bloated one. In fairness to the ministers, many of them did not have the resources to function until the signing of the 2024 budget on January 1. This is because their ministries were not captured in the 2023 Federal Government budget. Some of them include the Ministry of Marine and Blue Economy, Ministry of Tourism, Ministry of Steel Development, Ministry of Art, Culture and the Creative Economy, and Ministry of Youth. I have advocated the alteration of section 147 (3) of the 1999 Constitution which says the president should appoint at least a minister from every state. This jamboree of appointment must stop!

Another thing I had expected from the Tinubu administration was prudence in public finance. Unfortunately, this is not the situation. A case in point is the frivolous expenditures in the various budgets viz. 2023 supplementary budget and the 2024 Federal Government budget. Aside from the whistleblowing on budget padding by Senator Abdul Ningi from Bauchi State for which the Senate suspended him for three months, reports from BudgIT and the Centre for Social Justice, NGOs based in Lagos and Abuja respectively, did not see any prudence in the management of Nigeria’s public fund under this government. The humongous amount used by the National Assembly and the presidency to procure vehicles and other items is shocking!

A preposterous act of Tinubu’s presidency is the revelation by Vice-President Kashim Shettima that the president approved N90bn to subsidise 2024 Hajj operations. He stated this earlier this month while flagging off the 2024 inaugural flight of pilgrims to Saudi Arabia at the Sir Ahmadu Bello International Airport Birnin Kebbi. Holy pilgrimage is a private religious obligation to religious faithful. It is not a ticket to heaven and it is not mandatory. You go if you can afford it. I’m sure the Christian pilgrimage will also make a similar demand later in the year. This is highly unnecessary!

As I write this, insecurity remains an intractable challenge. Despite the change in leadership of the military service chiefs, Inspector-General of Police and heads of paramilitary organisations, kidnapping for ransom has become an epidemic across the country. In fairness to the president, there has been increased spending for the security and defence sector. Fresh recruitments and training are being made, however, most Nigerians still feel unsafe.

It’s not all gloom under Tinubu: Governance is a work in progress. This newspaper reported in yesterday’s edition that President Bola Tinubu-led Federal Executive Council has awarded 51 contracts worth N6.27tn for procuring, constructing and developing various infrastructural projects across the federation in eight months. The contracts, awarded between October 16, 2023, and May 14, 2024, were allocated to facilitate the development of a wide array of infrastructural projects across critical sectors, encompassing the construction of roads, bridges, train systems, and airport infrastructure.” This will significantly improve the country’s social amenities when completed.

He has inaugurated some projects in Lagos and Abuja. The Electricity Act 2023 will also ensure energy diversity in the long run. Let’s also not forget that Nigeria came second in the 2023 African Nations Cup played in Cote d’Ivoire in February 2024. Meanwhile, the president has yet to fulfil his promise of a living wage to workers.