Amupitan, INEC and challenge of credible elections

 

Last Thursday, October 9, 2025, President Bola Tinubu nominated Prof. Joash Amupitan as the next substantive chairman of Independent National Electoral Commission. He takes over from Prof. Mahmood Yakubu who was the first chairman to have served two consecutive terms of five years each. Amupitan, a professor of law and Senior Advocate of Nigeria was until his appointment Deputy Vice Chancellor (Administration), University of Jos. Aged 58, he came with his own number of firsts. He is the first Yoruba and first SAN and first person from North Central Nigeria to be so appointed. It will seem INEC job is now made strictly for professors as the last four INEC chairmen from Prof. Maurice Iwu to Prof. Attahiru Jega to Prof. Mahmood Yakubu and now Amupitan had all been from the academia. In time past we have had Prof. Humphrey Nwosu who conducted the landmark June 12, 1993 presidential election and introduced the Option A4 method of conducting party primary into our political lexicon. There have also been Prof. Okon Uya and Prof. Eme Awa.

Amupitan from Ayetoro Gbede in Kogi West Senatorial District has his job cut out for him. I have been on several media platforms from radio to televisions trying to set agenda for the new INEC helmsman. As I said last Monday, October 13 on Good Morning Nigeria on NTA, Amupitan’s litmus test will be the forthcoming Anambra State off cycle governorship election coming up on November 8, 2025. That is if he scaled the Senate’s constitutional screening and confirmation hurdle as well as sworn-in by the president before the Anambra poll. Otherwise, it will be Mrs. May Agbamuche-Mbu who is the acting chairman of INEC that will conduct that election. Those who know the INEC Chairman designate said he’s non-partisan and person of integrity. However, INEC’s job needs more than those sterling qualities of academic brilliance, non-partisanship and integrity. The elephant in the room is if he will be able to stand firm and ward off attempts by the political class, including his appointer to bend the rules in favour of the ruling party and candidates.

The truth is that the executive branch will always make efforts at capturing the electoral management bodies. They will dangle carrots and if rebuffed, they can also wield the sticks. Blackmail is a ready weapon in the hands of the executive. Funding is crucial to the implementation of any election project plan, if the executive does not release adequate funds and in a timely manner, many electoral plans will go awry and the Commission, not the presidency will bear the blame. I always tell those who care to listen that credible election is not solely dependent on INEC or any of the other 36 State Independent Electoral Commissions.

In a presentation titled “Nigeria: State of the Nation” that I made at the Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung 2025 Nigeria Green Academy at Kwali, FCT on Monday, October 13, 2025, I said that main actors in the political field are the Political Parties and Contestants. The Umpire (Regulator and Registrar) are the Election Management Bodies i.e. INEC and SIECs while the Stakeholders are:  National Assembly (Electoral Law); Presidency (Funding); Security and Anti-Corruption Agencies (Police, Armed Forces, paramilitary agencies, EFCC, ICPC to provide election security and prevent vote trading); Media (Election coverage); Judiciary (Election Dispute Resolution); Civil Society Organisations (Election Observation and Voter Education); Donor partners (such as FCDO, EU, UNDP, HBS, KAS, etc funding support). Credibility of every elections depends on robust support and collaboration of these aforementioned.

Take for instance, this is mid-October and National Assembly is still consulting on electoral reform agenda when it should have concluded both the constitutional and electoral reform since middle of this year. News report has it that the NASS is contemplating having the next general elections initially scheduled for February 2027 brought back by six months in order to ensure that election petitions are disposed-off before swearing in off winners. Thus, many newspapers including this medium speculated that the next general election many hold in November 2026,

According to THE PUNCH (online) of October 14, 2025, “A fresh bid by the National Assembly to shift the 2027 presidential and governorship elections to November 2026 has divided opposition parties. While some described it as an attempt to extend President Bola Tinubu’s stay in office, others agreed it could strengthen Nigeria’s electoral system if properly implemented. The proposal, part of sweeping amendments to the 2022 Electoral Act, seeks to move the elections forward by about six months to allow all pre- and post-election litigations to be concluded before the May 29, 2027, handover date.  If it scaled through; the presidential and governorship elections would be conducted in November 2026, instead of the traditional February or March date.”

You can see that the polity is already being heated up by the kind of electoral reforms being proposed by the National Assembly. Meanwhile the notice of election is supposed to be issued by INEC one year to the next election. Is INEC in a position to issue the notice in November this year? There is also the proposed reserved seats for Nigerian women, if this sails through, will INEC be in a good position to implement it ahead of the next election? If we want to do electronic voting as being planned, does INEC have the infrastructure to do that ahead of the next polls? Will INEC get full complement of the resources including funding required ahead of the next general elections? A chain is as strong as its weakest link; you can see that what NASS does or fail to do in good time can impact on the credibility or otherwise of the elections.

What about security agencies? INEC has established Inter Agency Consultative Committee on Election Security. The Commission needs the armed forces and other security agencies for logistics and securing the election environment. For instance, air force helps to airlift election materials while police accompany election materials and personnel across the distribution chain from the Central Bank where the materials are kept to the INEC local government offices to Registration Area Centre better known as RAC down to the Polling Units. They are also to provide security during and after the polls. Should they boycott this task, desperate politicians can use their thugs and hooligans to unleash terror on the Poll Officials and Voters. Security Agents are also needed to apprehend not only those trying to disrupt elections but also those engaging in vote buying, which I prefer to call vote trading because it takes two to tango.

We should also not forget that there is a constitutional duty for the judiciary particularly during the pre and post-election phases. Many disputes arising from party nomination processes end up in court. It is the judiciary that sometimes determines who’s the authentic candidate of the party. Post-election, the courts are also filled with litigation over electoral outcomes and sometimes have to determine the real winner of the polls. It’s the Nigerian judiciary that brought about the phenomenon of off-cycle governorship election that is now making governorship elections in eight states – Anambra, Ekiti, Osun, Ondo, Bayelsa, Imo and Kogi - to hold at other times than during the general elections. Outside of election season, judiciary is also being involved in resolving several internal wrangling especially party leadership imbroglio. 

As I said on Focus Nigeria on AIT last Thursday, October 9, 2025, the media and civil society need to do an independent screening of the new INEC chairman and his 12 national commissioners as well as the 37 Resident Electoral Commissioners. The Minister of Science, Technology and Innovation, Uche Nnaji’s saga which ended up with his resignation over certificate forgery allegation should teach us a lesson not to depend on our security agencies and Senate to do proper screening. I wish Prof. Joash Amupitan good luck and say “May your road be rough” a la, Dr. Tai Solarin of blessed memory.

I.G @jideojong